BetBoom Xmas Show · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 2:3series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Tinysignature
Mira · 25 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 19 games
Clockwerk
Mira · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Razorsignature
Collapse · 13 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Mira · 12 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 20 games
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 17 games
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 16 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
tOfu · 16 games
Marcisignature
tOfu · 14 games
Tiny
BOOM · 14 games
Storm Spiritsignature
BOOM · 12 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
365 picks · 350 bans
Tusk
341 picks · 325 bans
Pangolier
232 picks · 568 bans
Snapfire
226 picks · 122 bans
Mirana
220 picks · 223 bans
Marci
219 picks · 434 bans
Crystal Maiden
217 picks · 147 bans
Undying
216 picks · 384 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total76% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:28
Team Spirit 66%Gaimin Gladiators 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 50:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYatoro
PuckQuinn
Dragon KnightLarl
Faceless VoidShad
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
MagnusAce
MiranaMira
SilencerSeleri
Shadow DemonMiposhka
HoodwinktOfu
Game 2prediction missed31:40
Team Spirit 62%Gaimin Gladiators 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 47:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerYatoro
SniperQuinn
Ember SpiritLarl
DoomAce
MagnusCollapse
SpectreShad
MiranaMira
HoodwinktOfu
ClockwerkMiposhka
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Game 3prediction correct33:30
Team Spirit 65%Gaimin Gladiators 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaYatoro
SniperQuinn
Dark SeerCollapse
RazorShad
LeshracLarl
Legion CommanderAce
TinyMira
TusktOfu
RubickMiposhka
IoSeleri
Game 4prediction missed22:43
Team Spirit 66%Gaimin Gladiators 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 46:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautYatoro
LeshracQuinn
TuskLarl
Phantom AssassinShad
MagnusCollapse
Dark SeerAce
SnapfireMira
ClockwerktOfu
Shadow DemonMiposhka
IoSeleri
Game 5prediction missed14:26
Team Spirit 67%Gaimin Gladiators 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorYatoro
LeshracQuinn
MarsCollapse
Nature's ProphetAce
TinyLarl
Drow RangerShad
IoMira
HoodwinktOfu
Ogre MagiMiposhka
ClockwerkSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 76%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5