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The International 2023 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 3:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 22 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 21 game
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 17 games
71%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Collapse · 17 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Collapse · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 16 games
69%

Gaimin Gladiators

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 30 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
tOfu · 29 games
69%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 26 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 26 games
62%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 26 games
54%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Ace · 25 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 25 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 23 games
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 270 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
182 picks · 383 bans
55%
Sven
Sven
176 picks · 253 bans
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
172 picks · 157 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
168 picks · 73 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
155 picks · 236 bans
48%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
150 picks · 86 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)86% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total58% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:12
Team Spirit 56%Gaimin Gladiators 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYatoro
52% · 19 games45% · 58 games
Gyrocopterdyrachyo
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckLarl
50% · 108 games50% · 378 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
54% · 205 games52% · 22 games
Lone DruidAce
Lone Druid
Tusk
TuskMira
46% · 218 games52% · 36 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMiposhka
60% · 162 games44% · 218 games
SilencerSeleri
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct33:22
Team Spirit 54%Gaimin Gladiators 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
56% · 106 games48% · 36 games
Wraith KingAce
Wraith King
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
45% · 290 games50% · 231 game
Morphlingdyrachyo
Morphling
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
51% · 106 games53% · 244 games
Primal BeastQuinn
Primal Beast
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
47% · 213 games57% · 57 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMira
40% · 65 games52% · 212 games
Nature's ProphetSeleri
Nature's Prophet
Game 3prediction correct36:32
Team Spirit 57%Gaimin Gladiators 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYatoro
64% · 23 games55% · 57 games
BrewmasterAce
Brewmaster
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCollapse
50% · 82 games49% · 31 game
Spectredyrachyo
Spectre
Dazzle
DazzleLarl
56% · 23 games47% · 233 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskMira
47% · 167 games52% · 36 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMiposhka
47% · 83 games42% · 21 game
Ancient ApparitionSeleri
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 58%
Series resultTeam Spirit 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3