1win Series Dota 2 Summer · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 3:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
Rubick
Mira · 23 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 22 games
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 22 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 19 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 19 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 22 games
Batridersignature
tOfu · 21 game
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 18 games
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 16 games
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
Sniperoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
Rubick
tOfu · 15 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
408 picks · 631 bans
Gyrocopter
345 picks · 366 bans
Centaur Warrunner
337 picks · 432 bans
Crystal Maiden
334 picks · 125 bans
Dark Willow
322 picks · 354 bans
Rubick
322 picks · 167 bans
Clockwerk
314 picks · 422 bans
Pangolier
312 picks · 581 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 49%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total56% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:19
Team Spirit 47%Gaimin Gladiators 53%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYatoro
Broodmotherdyrachyo
Dragon KnightLarl
Ember SpiritQuinn
Dark SeerCollapse
TimbersawAce
Shadow DemonMiposhka
EnchantressSeleri
Nyx AssassinMira
LiontOfu
Game 2prediction correct15:22
Team Spirit 46%Gaimin Gladiators 54%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 29:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightYatoro
LeshracQuinn
RazorCollapse
Broodmotherdyrachyo
InvokerLarl
UnderlordAce
EnchantressMiposhka
IoSeleri
TuskMira
RubicktOfu
Game 3prediction missed38:18
Team Spirit 47%Gaimin Gladiators 53%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightYatoro
Ember SpiritQuinn
NecrophosLarl
Broodmotherdyrachyo
BrewmasterCollapse
Dark SeerAce
Elder TitanMiposhka
Crystal MaidenSeleri
RubickMira
GyrocoptertOfu
Game 4prediction missed37:10
Team Spirit 46%Gaimin Gladiators 54%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 26:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYatoro
Beastmasterdyrachyo
Monkey KingLarl
RazorQuinn
Primal BeastCollapse
UnderlordAce
Nyx AssassinMira
BatridertOfu
Shadow DemonMiposhka
EnchantressSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 56%
Series resultTeam Spirit 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4