?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
61%
Muerta
Muerta
rue · 27 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 25 games
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
79%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 22 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 21 game
62%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 37 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 24 games
54%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 19 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 18 games
39%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 16 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
518 picks · 728 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
475 picks · 468 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
474 picks · 759 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
447 picks · 363 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
418 picks · 1041 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
417 picks · 502 bans
49%
Bristleback
Bristleback
402 picks · 936 bans
60%
Pangolier
Pangolier
389 picks · 541 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total80% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:21
Team Spirit 67%Gaimin Gladiators 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 28:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
49% · 103 games54% · 100 games
BroodmotherWatson
Broodmother
Doom
DoomCollapse
45% · 117 games46% · 91 game
AbaddonAce
Abaddon
Viper
ViperLarl
50% · 16 games50% · 187 games
Ember SpiritQuinn
Ember Spirit
Tusk
TuskMiposhka
46% · 129 games53% · 65 games
Keeper of the LighttOfu
Keeper of the Light
Muerta
Muertarue
60% · 101 game46% · 23 games
SilencerMalady
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct27:18
Team Spirit 66%Gaimin Gladiators 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYatoro
47% · 204 games47% · 113 games
Phantom AssassinWatson
Phantom Assassin
Venomancer
VenomancerLarl
54% · 23 games59% · 42 games
HuskarQuinn
Huskar
Sand King
Sand KingCollapse
58% · 51 game45% · 141 game
TerrorbladeAce
Terrorblade
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterrue
51% · 67 games46% · 64 games
Shadow ShamantOfu
Shadow Shaman
Jakiro
JakiroMiposhka
52% · 101 game48% · 86 games
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct27:21
Team Spirit 68%Gaimin Gladiators 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYatoro
43% · 134 games40% · 122 games
TerrorbladeWatson
Terrorblade
Huskar
HuskarLarl
59% · 44 games54% · 80 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Sand King
Sand KingCollapse
57% · 132 games46% · 175 games
Ember SpiritQuinn
Ember Spirit
Warlock
WarlockMiposhka
51% · 108 games61% · 106 games
EarthshakertOfu
Earthshaker
Muerta
Muertarue
49% · 209 games45% · 144 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 80%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3