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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HellRaisersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 24 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 24 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 24 games
79%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 18 games
83%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 16 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 16 games
81%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
80%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
47%

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
453 picks · 194 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 589 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
392 picks · 894 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
346 picks · 325 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 239 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 397 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
292 picks · 408 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 66%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total70% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:37
Team Spirit 70%HellRaisers 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 44:20.
Game 2prediction correct13:13
Team Spirit 70%HellRaisers 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:28.
Game 3prediction correct20:28
Team Spirit 70%HellRaisers 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 70%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3