BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HellRaisersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Tinysignature
Mira · 23 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Mira · 12 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 12 games
Phoenixsignature
Miposhka · 11 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
364 picks · 351 bans
Tusk
336 picks · 323 bans
Pangolier
235 picks · 568 bans
Marci
227 picks · 454 bans
Snapfire
226 picks · 122 bans
Undying
226 picks · 400 bans
Crystal Maiden
218 picks · 146 bans
Mirana
217 picks · 217 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 77%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total76% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:48
Team Spirit 76%HellRaisers 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 40:55.
Game 2prediction correct39:19
Team Spirit 76%HellRaisers 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:05.
Game 3prediction correct45:31
Team Spirit 76%HellRaisers 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:02:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 76%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3