Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HellRaisersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Tinysignature
Mira · 23 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 17 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 13 games
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 12 games
Marcioften banned
Mira · 11 games
Razorsignature
Collapse · 11 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
376 picks · 364 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 337 bans
Rubick
301 picks · 217 bans
Mirana
271 picks · 272 bans
Crystal Maiden
196 picks · 146 bans
Snapfire
193 picks · 106 bans
Treant Protector
187 picks · 247 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 507 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 70%
Hero pool strength62% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total76% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:14
Team Spirit 76%HellRaisers 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:48.
Game 2prediction correct25:13
Team Spirit 76%HellRaisers 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 27:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 76%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2