Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HellRaiserswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 38 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 26 games
Tinysignature
Mira · 24 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 19 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 18 games
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 17 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
861 picks · 604 bans
Tiny
616 picks · 426 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
522 picks · 428 bans
Nature's Prophet
513 picks · 828 bans
Snapfire
460 picks · 320 bans
Death Prophet
458 picks · 956 bans
Clockwerk
411 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 61%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total75% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:15
Team Spirit 75%HellRaisers 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:56.
Game 2prediction missed15:36
Team Spirit 75%HellRaisers 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 38:26.
Game 3prediction missed12:19
Team Spirit 75%HellRaisers 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 34:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 75%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3