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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Heroicwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 22 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 21 game
57%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 16 games
44%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 15 games
40%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 31 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 20 games
65%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 19 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 15 games
73%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 15 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
KJ · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
473 picks · 205 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 595 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 830 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 659 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
423 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
396 picks · 731 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 618 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
381 picks · 295 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:26
Team Spirit 58%Heroic 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Heroic in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerLarl
42% · 225 games53% · 209 games
Faceless VoidK1
Faceless Void
Lifestealer
LifestealerYatoro
50% · 102 games55% · 103 games
Leshrac4nalog
Leshrac
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
54% · 182 games55% · 269 games
TimbersawDavai
Timbersaw
Rubick
RubickMiposhka
47% · 410 games53% · 226 games
PugnaKJ
Pugna
Tusk
TuskMira
40% · 141 game50% · 253 games
TinyScofield
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 68%
Series resultHeroic 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1