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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 28 games
54%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 21 game
81%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 20 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 19 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Mira · 17 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 15 games
80%

HULIGANI

Rubick
Rubick
Panto · 19 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 18 games
33%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
OneJey · 15 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 14 games
79%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
57%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 14 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
339 picks · 279 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 453 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
318 picks · 365 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
316 picks · 312 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
307 picks · 430 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
302 picks · 519 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 481 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 74%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:38
Team Spirit 54%HULIGANI 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 45:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSatanic
49% · 217 games46% · 184 games
Windrangerv1olent-
Windranger
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalik
50% · 127 games45% · 197 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Tiny
TinyLarl
49% · 316 games52% · 81 game
UnderlordAlberkaaa
Underlord
Omniknight
OmniknightMiposhka
57% · 64 games53% · 111 games
Naga SirenPanto
Naga Siren
51% · 151 game
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct22:11
Team Spirit 53%HULIGANI 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSatanic
51% · 246 games50% · 177 games
Nature's Prophetv1olent-
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
57% · 148 games52% · 243 games
TimbersawAlberkaaa
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
47% · 310 games46% · 100 games
Void SpiritMirage
Void Spirit
Tusk
TuskMiposhka
44% · 186 games51% · 312 games
BatriderOneJey
Batrider
54% · 58 games
OmniknightPanto
Omniknight
Game 3prediction correct24:11
Team Spirit 56%HULIGANI 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 26:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSatanic
55% · 84 games48% · 146 games
Morphlingv1olent-
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
56% · 220 games53% · 171 game
Primal BeastAlberkaaa
Primal Beast
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
50% · 429 games47% · 243 games
TinyMirage
Tiny
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
47% · 115 games52% · 104 games
SnapfireOneJey
Snapfire
41% · 184 games
EnchantressPanto
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 56%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3