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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 43 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 27 games
59%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 27 games
78%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 23 games
70%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 23 games
48%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 22 games
64%

HULIGANI

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 21 game
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 17 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 16 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 16 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirage · 14 games
71%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tobi · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
391 picks · 500 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
381 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 381 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 557 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
326 picks · 396 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
321 picks · 157 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
319 picks · 733 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
302 picks · 415 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total91% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:36
Team Spirit 77%HULIGANI 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 50:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreYatoro
60% · 44 games50% · 64 games
Lifestealerv1olent-
Lifestealer
Puck
PuckLarl
53% · 218 games50% · 158 games
Ember SpiritMirage
Ember Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCollapse
51% · 138 games44% · 161 game
MagnusAlberkaaa
Magnus
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinrue
56% · 118 games43% · 237 games
ClockwerkRESPECT
Clockwerk
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
49% · 300 games48% · 198 games
Lionqueezy
Lion
Game 2prediction correct26:11
Team Spirit 78%HULIGANI 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
47% · 115 games46% · 174 games
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Templar Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
57% · 153 games46% · 100 games
LinaMirage
Lina
Brewmaster
BrewmasterCollapse
52% · 104 games43% · 202 games
TimbersawAlberkaaa
Timbersaw
Chen
ChenMiposhka
62% · 122 games47% · 70 games
LichRESPECT
Lich
Lion
Lionrue
59% · 248 games41% · 196 games
Tuskqueezy
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct31:16
Team Spirit 77%HULIGANI 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYatoro
47% · 312 games53% · 201 game
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckLarl
51% · 231 game52% · 209 games
DoomAlberkaaa
Doom
Night Stalker
Night StalkerCollapse
45% · 54 games52% · 182 games
InvokerMirage
Invoker
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMiposhka
46% · 174 games46% · 204 games
Muertaqueezy
Muerta
Lion
Lionrue
54% · 295 games54% · 270 games
ClockwerkRESPECT
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 91%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3