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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 28 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 27 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 27 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 25 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 24 games
79%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 21 game
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 19 games
47%

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 21 game
33%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 19 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Pyw · 16 games
81%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Echo · 15 games
47%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 14 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 14 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 13 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Pyw · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 894 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
400 picks · 417 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
397 picks · 300 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
389 picks · 803 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 535 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
344 picks · 692 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
340 picks · 478 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
314 picks · 380 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 34%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total77% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:21
Team Spirit 65%LGD Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
39% · 142 games51% · 79 games
Shadow Fiendshiro
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
52% · 97 games54% · 120 games
Keeper of the LightEcho
Keeper of the Light
Doom
DoomCollapse
51% · 111 games42% · 33 games
Bristlebackniu
Bristleback
Jakiro
JakiroMiposhka
42% · 118 games57% · 180 games
WindrangerPyw
Windranger
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
53% · 211 games52% · 267 games
Sveny`
Sven
Game 2prediction correct
Team Spirit 77%LGD Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 77%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2