DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LFLooking for Orgloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 33 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 29 games
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 28 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 21 game
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 20 games
Sand Kingsignature
Larl · 20 games
Dark Willowsignature
rue · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
Looking for Org
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 21 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 16 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 13 games
Tusksignature
Yadomi · 13 games
Lunasignature
Mnz · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
Clockwerk
Yadomi · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
397 picks · 511 bans
Clockwerk
367 picks · 359 bans
Pangolier
316 picks · 461 bans
Luna
306 picks · 360 bans
Enchantress
293 picks · 570 bans
Dark Willow
264 picks · 145 bans
Snapfire
253 picks · 123 bans
Batrider
252 picks · 259 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:24
Team Spirit 69%Looking for Org 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSatanic
Morphlingpayk
Storm SpiritLarl
Ember SpiritDarkMago
DawnbreakerMalik
BeastmasterSacred
ClockwerkMiposhka
Shadow DemonMatthew
Lionrue
TuskYadomi
Game 2prediction missed17:33
Team Spirit 68%Looking for Org 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 47:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackSatanic
Medusapayk
TerrorbladeMalik
Sand KingDarkMago
Earth SpiritLarl
DoomSacred
Muertarue
EnchantressYadomi
Ogre MagiMiposhka
LionMatthew
Game 3prediction correct18:11
Team Spirit 69%Looking for Org 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaSatanic
Razorpayk
Storm SpiritLarl
Sand KingDarkMago
PangolierMalik
BeastmasterSacred
HoodwinkMiposhka
EnchantressYadomi
Nyx Assassinrue
BatriderMatthew
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 80%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3