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1win Series Dota 2 Spring · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:1
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 0:1
MOUZwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
76%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 18 games
61%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 14 games
79%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tiny
Larl · 12 games
58%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
bengan · 8 games
63%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 6 games
50%
Bane
Bane
bengan · 5 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Supream^ · 5 games
80%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 5 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 5 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 354 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
355 picks · 563 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
343 picks · 337 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 518 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
330 picks · 261 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
321 picks · 632 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
313 picks · 187 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
298 picks · 294 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:51
Team Spirit 82%MOUZ 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by MOUZ in 41:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
54% · 178 games48% · 128 games
SvenUlnit
Sven
Razor
RazorCollapse
46% · 82 games48% · 217 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Kunkka
KunkkaLarl
49% · 144 games54% · 143 games
Queen of PainSupream^
Queen of Pain
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
49% · 167 games53% · 157 games
Crystal Maidenbengan
Crystal Maiden
Batrider
BatriderKorb3n
48% · 263 games51% · 189 games
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 95%
Series resultMOUZ 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1