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1win Series Dota 2 Spring · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
76%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 19 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 18 games
61%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 14 games
79%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Larl · 12 games
58%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
bengan · 8 games
63%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 6 games
67%
Bane
Bane
bengan · 5 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Supream^ · 5 games
80%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 5 games
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
382 picks · 353 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 573 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 528 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
346 picks · 269 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 336 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
327 picks · 663 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
316 picks · 190 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
305 picks · 311 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total94% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:14
Team Spirit 79%MOUZ 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYatoro
53% · 69 games53% · 165 games
LunaUlnit
Luna
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
49% · 364 games50% · 175 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Tiny
TinyCollapse
52% · 201 game51% · 326 games
Storm SpiritSupream^
Storm Spirit
Rubick
RubickMira
42% · 396 games51% · 319 games
BatriderNARMAN
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
48% · 169 games52% · 214 games
Shadow Demonbengan
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct42:32
Team Spirit 79%MOUZ 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 54:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
51% · 113 games54% · 93 games
AlchemistUlnit
Alchemist
Sniper
SniperLarl
50% · 32 games57% · 129 games
DoomForce
Doom
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
52% · 28 games49% · 50 games
LeshracSupream^
Leshrac
Lion
LionMira
47% · 157 games58% · 60 games
EarthshakerNARMAN
Earthshaker
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
45% · 150 games41% · 148 games
Shadow Demonbengan
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 94%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2