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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rue · 16 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 14 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 13 games
62%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Larl · 13 games
77%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 13 games
77%

MOUZ

Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
53%
Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 43 games
67%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 32 games
59%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 30 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 28 games
68%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 23 games
70%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 23 games
74%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Crystallis · 23 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
753 picks · 352 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
609 picks · 630 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
543 picks · 298 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
443 picks · 264 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
441 picks · 1181 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
440 picks · 490 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
433 picks · 720 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
388 picks · 250 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 66%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total79% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:34
Team Spirit 66%MOUZ 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by MOUZ in 37:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
55% · 180 gameslittle data
Lone DruidGhost
Lone Druid
Sand King
Sand KingLarl
50% · 148 games53% · 156 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
43% · 132 games44% · 394 games
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Pugna
PugnaPanto
48% · 229 games51% · 241 game
Clockwerkyamich
Clockwerk
Tusk
Tuskrue
53% · 333 games53% · 231 game
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct36:10
Team Spirit 65%MOUZ 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainYatoro
46% · 169 games49% · 207 games
Templar AssassinGhost
Templar Assassin
Sniper
SniperLarl
51% · 86 games57% · 84 games
HuskarMidOne
Huskar
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
52% · 120 games51% · 180 games
SlardarBOOM
Slardar
Tusk
Tuskrue
49% · 280 games45% · 233 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
54% · 236 games48% · 187 games
Clockwerkyamich
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct53:30
Team Spirit 67%MOUZ 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYatoro
50% · 355 games47% · 156 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Timbersaw
TimbersawCollapse
53% · 216 games41% · 72 games
WeaverGhost
Weaver
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
51% · 134 games50% · 370 games
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
53% · 251 game50% · 338 games
BatriderKaori
Batrider
Bane
Banerue
56% · 180 games47% · 200 games
Clockwerkyamich
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 79%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3