?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
MOUZloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusk
rue · 27 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 24 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 20 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 20 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 20 games
60%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 17 games
47%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 68 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 55 games
55%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 48 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 46 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 41 game
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 36 games
72%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 34 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
614 picks · 959 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 422 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 623 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
433 picks · 971 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
419 picks · 465 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
417 picks · 514 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
415 picks · 256 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 658 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total54% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:16
Team Spirit 47%MOUZ 53%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYatoro
50% · 200 games54% · 325 games
BristlebackBOOM
Bristleback
Puck
PuckMirele
52% · 406 games47% · 531 game
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Necrophos
NecrophosCollapse
38% · 15 games55% · 138 games
ViperMidOne
Viper
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
49% · 606 games49% · 552 games
WarlockSeleri
Warlock
Tiny
Tinyrue
47% · 425 games51% · 106 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Game 2prediction correct18:27
Team Spirit 46%MOUZ 54%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezYatoro
49% · 121 game53% · 329 games
GyrocopterCrystallis
Gyrocopter
Underlord
UnderlordCollapse
54% · 259 games55% · 126 games
InvokerMidOne
Invoker
Viper
ViperMirele
48% · 125 games49% · 361 game
MarsBOOM
Mars
Tiny
Tinyrue
51% · 572 games45% · 481 game
WarlockSeleri
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
49% · 718 games47% · 498 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2