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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 13 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 10 games
90%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 9 games
100%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Mira · 8 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yatoro · 8 games
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Miposhka · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 7 games
100%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 7 games
71%

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lionsignature
xsvampire · 10 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Malik · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Malik · 6 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 6 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Shigetsu · 6 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
mellojul · 6 games
67%
Sven
Sven
Shigetsu · 6 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Malady · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 433 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
248 picks · 387 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
243 picks · 338 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
218 picks · 203 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
209 picks · 296 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
202 picks · 100 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
199 picks · 500 bans
52%
Kunkka
Kunkka
181 picks · 499 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 50%
Hero pool strength63% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total94% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:36
Team Spirit 79%Natus Vincere 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 50:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
56% · 135 games46% · 102 games
WindrangerShigetsu
Windranger
Tiny
TinyLarl
48% · 197 games57% · 37 games
Lone DruidNefrit
Lone Druid
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
50% · 245 games50% · 366 games
Primal Beastmellojul
Primal Beast
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMira
45% · 172 games48% · 210 games
TechiesZayac
Techies
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMiposhka
46% · 94 games55% · 128 games
LionMalady
Lion
Game 2prediction missed15:47
Team Spirit 80%Natus Vincere 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 47:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYatoro
39% · 64 games42% · 112 games
WindrangerShigetsu
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
57% · 253 games54% · 166 games
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
Keeper of the Light
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
47% · 85 games49% · 69 games
PudgeNefrit
Pudge
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
50% · 141 game48% · 287 games
SnapfireMalady
Snapfire
Tiny
TinyMiposhka
55% · 213 games52% · 122 games
LionZayac
Lion
Game 3prediction correct34:5
Team Spirit 79%Natus Vincere 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYatoro
51% · 59 games47% · 133 games
Puckmellojul
Puck
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
58% · 23 games55% · 31 game
PudgeShigetsu
Pudge
Viper
ViperLarl
51% · 17 games52% · 170 games
Primal BeastNefrit
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatriderMira
51% · 254 games50% · 150 games
TechiesZayac
Techies
Tusk
TuskMiposhka
47% · 187 games46% · 56 games
Vengeful SpiritMalady
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 94%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3