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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 22 games
73%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
76%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 16 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 16 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 14 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 13 games
54%

Natus Vincere

Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
mellojul · 10 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Zayac · 10 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
mellojul · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 7 games
86%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nefrit · 6 games
83%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Shigetsu · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
378 picks · 351 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
374 picks · 608 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 565 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
365 picks · 291 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 339 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
346 picks · 716 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
330 picks · 195 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
327 picks · 343 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total86% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:38
Team Spirit 70%Natus Vincere 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 51:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYatoro
46% · 148 games51% · 232 games
Faceless VoidYuragi
Faceless Void
Timbersaw
TimbersawLarl
48% · 201 game49% · 70 games
ZeusSancity
Zeus
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
52% · 52 games49% · 218 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
RubickMira
49% · 299 games54% · 217 games
Shadow DemonZayac
Shadow Demon
Batrider
BatriderMiposhka
49% · 280 games54% · 243 games
Crystal MaidenMalady
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed16:40
Team Spirit 70%Natus Vincere 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 48:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
52% · 216 games48% · 89 games
RazorNefrit
Razor
Lina
LinaLarl
41% · 75 games46% · 71 game
ZeusSancity
Zeus
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
52% · 170 games51% · 162 games
SvenYuragi
Sven
Techies
TechiesMira
52% · 297 games50% · 230 games
Shadow DemonZayac
Shadow Demon
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
55% · 158 games52% · 364 games
BatriderMalady
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 86%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2