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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 39 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 32 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 28 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Miposhka · 27 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 27 games
70%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 27 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 26 games
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 26 games
81%

Natus Vincere Junior

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 32 games
66%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 29 games
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 28 games
75%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 25 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
pma · 25 games
64%
Lion
Lionsignature
Daze · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 696 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
383 picks · 383 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
379 picks · 746 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
352 picks · 205 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
343 picks · 643 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
339 picks · 599 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
312 picks · 584 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
310 picks · 407 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:7
Team Spirit 72%Natus Vincere Junior 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
45% · 212 games55% · 126 games
Brewmasterpma
Brewmaster
Abaddon
AbaddonCollapse
46% · 94 games50% · 153 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
53% · 315 games50% · 375 games
Tinygotthejuice
Tiny
Ringmaster
Ringmasterrue
44% · 86 games57% · 262 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroMiposhka
51% · 276 games47% · 67 games
Shadow ShamanZayac
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct39:7
Team Spirit 73%Natus Vincere Junior 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYatoro
57% · 156 games52% · 207 games
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Gyrocopter
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCollapse
54% · 182 games48% · 113 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
42% · 245 games42% · 299 games
Dragon KnightNiku
Dragon Knight
Jakiro
JakiroMiposhka
52% · 283 games45% · 170 games
TerrorbladeZayac
Terrorblade
Riki
Rikirue
57% · 41 game56% · 118 games
RingmasterRiddys
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 87%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2