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1win Series Dota 2 Summer · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 1:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 23 games
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 21 game
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 21 game
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 19 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 19 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 19 games
58%

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 17 games
41%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 15 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
KuroKy · 14 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
KuroKy · 13 games
46%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
77%
Windranger
Windranger
Miracle- · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 615 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 372 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
341 picks · 129 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
335 picks · 443 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
319 picks · 353 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
311 picks · 416 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
311 picks · 159 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 555 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:9
Team Spirit 75%Nigma Galaxy 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
43% · 113 games53% · 199 games
Dragon KnightMiracle-
Dragon Knight
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYatoro
49% · 86 games45% · 86 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
51% · 238 games50% · 188 games
BrewmasterFbz
Brewmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
49% · 204 games54% · 150 games
PugnaGH
Pugna
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
53% · 198 games55% · 216 games
ClockwerkKuroKy
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 91%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1