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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 32 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 31 game
77%
Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 30 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 25 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 25 games
64%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 22 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 19 games
74%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%

Nigma Galaxy

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 25 games
28%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 24 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 21 game
52%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
GH · 20 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 20 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 18 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
24%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 17 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
686 picks · 849 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
593 picks · 611 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 427 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
490 picks · 335 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
423 picks · 1113 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
404 picks · 1033 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 701 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 631 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 44%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:10
Team Spirit 76%Nigma Galaxy 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
59% · 282 games44% · 303 games
Terrorbladerincyq
Terrorblade
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
52% · 358 games45% · 180 games
DoomDavai
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
57% · 380 games40% · 254 games
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPanto
60% · 374 games42% · 183 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Lion
Lionrue
54% · 119 games47% · 593 games
TuskOmaR
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct42:27
Team Spirit 73%Nigma Galaxy 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 48:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
59% · 200 games48% · 82 games
Lifestealerrincyq
Lifestealer
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
40% · 223 games47% · 165 games
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
46% · 169 games52% · 146 games
DoomNo!ob
Doom
Phoenix
PhoenixPanto
49% · 142 games53% · 308 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Lion
Lionrue
52% · 74 games55% · 107 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 88%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2