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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 24 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 24 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 23 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 22 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 19 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 19 games
63%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 36 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 30 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 28 games
46%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 27 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 23 games
65%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 642 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
316 picks · 366 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
314 picks · 350 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
310 picks · 443 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
301 picks · 550 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
289 picks · 183 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
289 picks · 178 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 376 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total62% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:19
Team Spirit 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
47% · 160 games44% · 237 games
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Doom
DoomCollapse
54% · 180 games39% · 69 games
Void Spiritbzm
Void Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastLarl
55% · 287 games51% · 335 games
PangolierWisper
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
50% · 206 games45% · 318 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMiposhka
57% · 249 games57% · 123 games
ChenCeb
Chen
Game 2prediction missed15:39
Team Spirit 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by OG in 29:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
49% · 179 games35% · 52 games
Shadow FiendTimado
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
47% · 106 games52% · 202 games
Morphlingbzm
Morphling
Snapfire
SnapfireLarl
39% · 94 games56% · 178 games
BrewmasterWisper
Brewmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMiposhka
59% · 218 games49% · 196 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMira
54% · 97 games56% · 66 games
MarciCeb
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2