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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 32 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 23 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 22 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 18 games
83%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 17 games
82%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Mira · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 16 games
75%

One Move

Tiny
Tiny
Gilgir · 17 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Gilgir · 16 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Panto · 15 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
42%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panto · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xsvampire · 10 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
AfterLife · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
746 picks · 474 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
531 picks · 457 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
528 picks · 578 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
527 picks · 388 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 592 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
384 picks · 261 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
372 picks · 621 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 747 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 53%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total81% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:7
Team Spirit 68%One Move 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 21:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
49% · 288 games43% · 377 games
Death ProphetAinkrad
Death Prophet
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYatoro
61% · 38 games51% · 65 games
Dark SeerAfterLife
Dark Seer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
55% · 191 game36% · 72 games
Phantom AssassinMunkushi~
Phantom Assassin
Rubick
RubickMira
50% · 508 games47% · 618 games
TinyGilgir
Tiny
Undying
UndyingMiposhka
52% · 257 games61% · 150 games
DisruptorPanto
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed19:32
Team Spirit 68%One Move 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by One Move in 44:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYatoro
47% · 113 games53% · 59 games
AbaddonMunkushi~
Abaddon
Snapfire
SnapfireLarl
45% · 413 games57% · 275 games
PuckAinkrad
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
43% · 112 games56% · 332 games
Death ProphetAfterLife
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickMira
49% · 552 games50% · 625 games
TinyGilgir
Tiny
Bane
BaneMiposhka
51% · 310 games48% · 209 games
EnchantressPanto
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct32:22
Team Spirit 66%One Move 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
51% · 179 games51% · 152 games
Monkey KingMunkushi~
Monkey King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
46% · 169 games54% · 90 games
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
46% · 150 games50% · 58 games
Dark SeerAfterLife
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickMiposhka
50% · 422 games50% · 140 games
EnchantressPanto
Enchantress
Techies
TechiesMira
56% · 66 games49% · 546 games
TinyGilgir
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 81%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3