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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 38 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 26 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 25 games
64%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
76%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 20 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 19 games
63%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 27 games
48%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 22 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 20 games
65%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 18 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 18 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 16 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
SSS · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
477 picks · 396 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
443 picks · 553 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 508 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
399 picks · 210 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 650 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
389 picks · 433 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 583 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
353 picks · 894 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:14
Team Spirit 77%One Move 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYatoro
51% · 383 games50% · 358 games
TimbersawWoE
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyLarl
48% · 440 games45% · 519 games
PangolierDifference
Pangolier
Mars
MarsCollapse
48% · 292 games58% · 70 games
LycanSSS
Lycan
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
53% · 306 games45% · 518 games
Batridernot me
Batrider
Muerta
Muertarue
48% · 225 games57% · 181 game
Ogre Magiso bad
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct32:30
Team Spirit 78%One Move 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
46% · 126 games50% · 44 games
Phantom AssassinWoE
Phantom Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
53% · 146 games56% · 178 games
Ember SpiritDifference
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
46% · 77 games54% · 55 games
Night StalkerSSS
Night Stalker
Batrider
Batriderrue
46% · 304 games50% · 254 games
Enchantressso bad
Enchantress
Lich
LichMiposhka
51% · 91 game48% · 213 games
Tusknot me
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 92%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2