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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PARIVISIONloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 36 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 35 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 30 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 26 games
81%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yatoro · 21 game
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
rue · 20 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 19 games
79%

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 39 games
74%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 29 games
83%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 29 games
69%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 26 games
73%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 24 games
79%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
74%
Slark
Slarksignature
9Class · 23 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
497 picks · 531 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 458 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
363 picks · 360 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 515 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
347 picks · 198 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
344 picks · 725 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
308 picks · 460 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
307 picks · 195 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 71%
Hero pool strength53% PARIVISION
Head-to-head7 – 5
Model total57% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:17
Team Spirit 46%PARIVISION 54%
The model gave 54% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYatoro
52% · 198 games49% · 288 games
DoomSatanic
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
57% · 360 games47% · 304 games
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Storm Spirit
Leshrac
LeshracLarl
45% · 65 games48% · 97 games
Ogre MagiDM
Ogre Magi
Batrider
Batriderrue
52% · 347 games48% · 206 games
RingmasterDukalis
Ringmaster
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMiposhka
54% · 259 games48% · 334 games
Dark Willow9Class
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed34:27
Team Spirit 44%PARIVISION 56%
The model gave 56% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 49:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYatoro
53% · 145 games51% · 186 games
DoomSatanic
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
46% · 67 games53% · 31 game
Death ProphetNo[o]ne
Death Prophet
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
45% · 109 games53% · 53 games
DazzleDM
Dazzle
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
48% · 81 game43% · 50 games
DisruptorDukalis
Disruptor
Lion
Lionrue
46% · 90 games58% · 172 games
Shadow Shaman9Class
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 57%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2