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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PSG Questwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 27 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 26 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 26 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 24 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 22 games
82%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 22 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 21 game
62%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 28 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
OmaR · 27 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 25 games
72%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 25 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
52%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 20 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Malik · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
393 picks · 721 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
334 picks · 282 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
332 picks · 644 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
329 picks · 219 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
320 picks · 470 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 373 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
298 picks · 538 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
295 picks · 346 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total74% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:2
Team Spirit 64%PSG Quest 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 20:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
51% · 112 games47% · 223 games
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
56% · 102 games42% · 89 games
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Tiny
TinyLarl
53% · 271 game51% · 204 games
BrewmasterMalik
Brewmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
52% · 205 games49% · 306 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Sven
SvenMiposhka
51% · 207 games47% · 75 games
JakiroDukalis
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed9:31
Team Spirit 63%PSG Quest 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 51:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzYatoro
45% · 62 games52% · 115 games
Naga SirenTA2000
Naga Siren
Doom
DoomCollapse
46% · 204 games44% · 47 games
Sand KingNo!ob
Sand King
Zeus
ZeusLarl
44% · 110 games59% · 263 games
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
47% · 222 games52% · 209 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Sven
SvenMiposhka
54% · 206 games51% · 170 games
GrimstrokeOmaR
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction missed13:34
Team Spirit 63%PSG Quest 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 38:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
49% · 92 games56% · 94 games
Naga SirenTA2000
Naga Siren
Brewmaster
BrewmasterCollapse
56% · 133 games50% · 37 games
Sand KingNo!ob
Sand King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
49% · 182 games51% · 347 games
PangolierMalik
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickMira
46% · 278 games46% · 224 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
52% · 93 games45% · 76 games
JakiroDukalis
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 74%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3