The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 24 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 24 games
Miranasignature
Mira · 23 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 18 games
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 16 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 16 games
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
447 picks · 194 bans
Mars
391 picks · 581 bans
Puck
390 picks · 884 bans
Snapfire
372 picks · 206 bans
Grimstroke
347 picks · 323 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 236 bans
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 396 bans
Ancient Apparition
289 picks · 397 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 52%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total68% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:9
Team Spirit 68%PuckChamp 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:21.
Game 2prediction correct29:8
Team Spirit 68%PuckChamp 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 68%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2