?
arrow_backBack to match
The Lima Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 29 games
72%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 20 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 19 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 17 games
82%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Mira · 16 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 16 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 15 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 14 games
93%

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
87%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 15 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 13 games
77%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 10 games
70%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 10 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Abed · 10 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
740 picks · 468 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
608 picks · 542 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
573 picks · 453 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
534 picks · 583 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
397 picks · 244 bans
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
393 picks · 569 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
384 picks · 370 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
380 picks · 596 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:6
Team Spirit 56%Shopify Rebellion 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYatoro
53% · 120 games50% · 73 games
SvenArteezy
Sven
Lycan
LycanCollapse
54% · 131 game48% · 219 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Batrider
BatriderLarl
54% · 219 games46% · 362 games
Death ProphetSabeRLight-
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickMira
46% · 469 games49% · 402 games
TuskCr1t-
Tusk
Undying
UndyingMiposhka
49% · 253 games51% · 136 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed19:38
Team Spirit 57%Shopify Rebellion 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 42:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaYatoro
55% · 297 games46% · 169 games
Shadow FiendArteezy
Shadow Fiend
Snapfire
SnapfireLarl
45% · 425 games50% · 287 games
Nature's ProphetSabeRLight-
Nature's Prophet
Mars
MarsCollapse
52% · 286 games44% · 133 games
ZeusAbed
Zeus
Riki
RikiMira
54% · 135 games51% · 773 games
TinyCr1t-
Tiny
Rubick
RubickMiposhka
48% · 587 games55% · 368 games
Treant ProtectorFly
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction missed20:23
Team Spirit 56%Shopify Rebellion 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 40:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaYatoro
52% · 288 games47% · 226 games
Nature's ProphetSabeRLight-
Nature's Prophet
Underlord
UnderlordCollapse
56% · 59 games44% · 140 games
Shadow FiendArteezy
Shadow Fiend
Tiny
TinyLarl
48% · 671 game50% · 217 games
Templar AssassinAbed
Templar Assassin
Zeus
ZeusMira
57% · 132 games47% · 422 games
TuskCr1t-
Tusk
Sven
SvenMiposhka
47% · 93 games53% · 238 games
Treant ProtectorFly
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 64%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3