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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 24 games
54%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 18 games
72%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Mira · 17 games
82%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Collapse · 16 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 16 games
63%

Shopify Rebellion

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 21 game
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Abed · 19 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Cr1t- · 17 games
47%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 16 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Cr1t- · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
263 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
210 picks · 437 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
209 picks · 268 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
187 picks · 260 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
174 picks · 371 bans
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
174 picks · 106 bans
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
172 picks · 322 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 27%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total83% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:23
Team Spirit 71%Shopify Rebellion 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCollapse
48% · 83 games54% · 175 games
TerrorbladeArteezy
Terrorblade
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
45% · 56 games51% · 76 games
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
Dawnbreaker
Kunkka
KunkkaLarl
42% · 98 games51% · 70 games
Earth SpiritAbed
Earth Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
52% · 155 games51% · 134 games
TuskCr1t-
Tusk
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMira
57% · 149 games46% · 86 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct45:38
Team Spirit 70%Shopify Rebellion 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 55:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingYatoro
52% · 21 game50% · 34 games
Chaos KnightArteezy
Chaos Knight
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCollapse
43% · 64 games46% · 62 games
Earth SpiritAbed
Earth Spirit
Puck
PuckLarl
60% · 63 games47% · 53 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
47% · 103 games63% · 24 games
Ancient ApparitionFly
Ancient Apparition
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMira
48% · 50 games49% · 128 games
Skywrath MageCr1t-
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 83%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2