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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 33 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 30 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 27 games
74%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 27 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 26 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 23 games
83%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
74%

Shopify Rebellion

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 14 games
71%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 13 games
46%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Skem · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
50%
Lycan
Lycansignature
mangekyou · 12 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
566 picks · 808 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
447 picks · 307 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
431 picks · 806 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
430 picks · 667 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 872 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
390 picks · 372 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
386 picks · 1051 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
383 picks · 524 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:23
Team Spirit 71%Shopify Rebellion 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
46% · 198 games49% · 345 games
Dragon KnightTimado
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackCollapse
51% · 243 games50% · 194 games
TerrorbladePakazs
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
49% · 230 games57% · 183 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Muerta
Muertarue
45% · 302 games52% · 85 games
Keeper of the LightHellscream
Keeper of the Light
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
48% · 92 games53% · 258 games
JakiroSkem
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct19:11
Team Spirit 71%Shopify Rebellion 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
56% · 79 games54% · 140 games
Phantom AssassinTimado
Phantom Assassin
Sand King
Sand KingLarl
56% · 147 games47% · 46 games
LycanPakazs
Lycan
Tinker
Tinkerrue
41% · 41 game51% · 273 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Bristleback
BristlebackCollapse
50% · 189 games44% · 148 games
SnapfireHellscream
Snapfire
Jakiro
JakiroMiposhka
47% · 211 games51% · 60 games
Keeper of the LightSkem
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 86%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2