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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
strongboysloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 20 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 18 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 18 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 16 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 15 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 15 games
53%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 15 games
73%

strongboys

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 9 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ponlo · 8 games
63%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Ponlo · 8 games
75%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stojkov · 7 games
86%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 7 games
43%
Marci
Marcisignature
ChodΣX · 6 games
83%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Tobi · 6 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
572 picks · 920 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 408 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
491 picks · 656 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
488 picks · 627 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
421 picks · 903 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
383 picks · 626 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 516 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
364 picks · 223 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:14
Team Spirit 79%strongboys 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Largo
LargoCollapse
58% · 31 game51% · 166 games
MuertaLowskill
Muerta
Windranger
WindrangerYatoro
44% · 274 games50% · 240 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMirele
45% · 491 game52% · 42 games
BrewmasterChodΣX
Brewmaster
Grimstroke
Grimstrokerue
58% · 58 games47% · 215 games
HoodwinkPonlo
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanto
48% · 164 games54% · 355 games
JakiroTobi
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct44:18
Team Spirit 81%strongboys 19%
The model gave 81% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYatoro
55% · 141 game48% · 354 games
WindrangerLowskill
Windranger
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirele
46% · 227 games52% · 157 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Batrider
BatriderCollapse
47% · 191 game52% · 213 games
UnderlordChodΣX
Underlord
Tusk
Tuskrue
48% · 322 games49% · 390 games
HoodwinkPonlo
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
49% · 339 games55% · 106 games
Nyx AssassinTobi
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 95%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2