The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 24 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 18 games
Tiny
Mira · 17 games
Tusksignature
Larl · 16 games
Clockwerksignature
Mira · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 15 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 14 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 13 games
Talon Esports
Tusksignature
Q · 20 games
Rubicksignature
Q · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 15 games
Undyingsignature
Hyde · 15 games
Marcioften banned
Q · 12 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 12 games
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 11 games
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
712 picks · 448 bans
Tusk
595 picks · 549 bans
Tiny
562 picks · 448 bans
Treant Protector
506 picks · 561 bans
Snapfire
391 picks · 224 bans
Mirana
390 picks · 385 bans
Nature's Prophet
363 picks · 529 bans
Death Prophet
362 picks · 560 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 65%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:8
Team Spirit 51%Talon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetYatoro
Monkey King23savage
SnapfireLarl
TimbersawJabz
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
TuskMikoto
RubickMira
MiranaQ
UndyingMiposhka
Elder TitanOli
Game 2prediction missed25:45
Team Spirit 52%Talon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 51:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordYatoro
Nature's ProphetJabz
BatriderLarl
Faceless Void23savage
TidehunterCollapse
PuckMikoto
RikiMira
TuskQ
ClockwerkMiposhka
SilencerOli
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2