PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Tinysignature
Mira · 19 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 18 games
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 14 games
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 25 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 15 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 15 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 14 games
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
692 picks · 509 bans
Puck
503 picks · 980 bans
Dawnbreaker
411 picks · 524 bans
Snapfire
386 picks · 200 bans
Marci
384 picks · 695 bans
Winter Wyvern
325 picks · 315 bans
Zeus
297 picks · 314 bans
Monkey King
290 picks · 617 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:18
Team Spirit 47%Team Aster 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautYatoro
BristlebackMonet
DoomCollapse
ZeusOri
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
BrewmasterXxs
RubickMiposhka
TinyBoBoKa
SnapfireMira
Winter WyvernFantasy
Game 2prediction correct7:35
Team Spirit 48%Team Aster 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 39:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautYatoro
Faceless VoidMonet
MarsCollapse
Death ProphetOri
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
DawnbreakerXxs
ZeusMira
DazzleFantasy
ChenMiposhka
TinyBoBoKa
Game 3prediction missed32:16
Team Spirit 49%Team Aster 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinYatoro
Troll WarlordMonet
MarsCollapse
Storm SpiritOri
TinyTORONTOTOKYO
TimbersawXxs
PhoenixMiposhka
ChenBoBoKa
IoMira
EarthshakerFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 55%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3