?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 38 games
66%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 34 games
59%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 28 games
82%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 24 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 22 games
82%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 22 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
77%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
rue · 21 game
76%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 54 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 34 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 34 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 31 game
55%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 29 games
66%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 26 games
77%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
416 picks · 518 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
370 picks · 354 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 450 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
310 picks · 361 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
298 picks · 565 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
270 picks · 143 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
257 picks · 352 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
255 picks · 244 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 69%
Hero pool strength51% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total77% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:30
Team Spirit 32%Team Falcons 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSatanic
50% · 341 game51% · 210 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Invoker
InvokerLarl
52% · 147 games54% · 144 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMalik
42% · 77 games54% · 129 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Bane
BaneMiposhka
55% · 56 games54% · 252 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Tusk
Tuskrue
39% · 284 games51% · 170 games
LionCr1t-
Lion
Game 2prediction correct7:27
Team Spirit 33%Team Falcons 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLarl
48% · 105 games44% · 277 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSatanic
51% · 86 games53% · 42 games
ViperATF
Viper
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalik
55% · 99 games56% · 155 games
Monkey KingMalr1ne
Monkey King
Tusk
TuskMiposhka
49% · 150 games47% · 56 games
EarthshakerCr1t-
Earthshaker
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
45% · 214 games52% · 124 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 77%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2