PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
Muerta
rue · 27 games
Tusk
rue · 25 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 22 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 21 game
Team Falcons
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 53 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 40 games
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 40 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 36 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 31 game
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 27 games
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 26 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
519 picks · 730 bans
Clockwerk
478 picks · 471 bans
Phoenix
476 picks · 768 bans
Muerta
448 picks · 364 bans
Magnus
420 picks · 1039 bans
Batrider
418 picks · 507 bans
Bristleback
406 picks · 934 bans
Pangolier
389 picks · 542 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head7 – 5
Model total68% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:29
Team Spirit 59%Team Falcons 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 41:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkYatoro
LifestealerSkiter
Ember SpiritLarl
MagnusATF
MarsCollapse
PangolierMalr1ne
Keeper of the Lightrue
MuertaCr1t-
JakiroMiposhka
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Game 2prediction missed19:32
Team Spirit 59%Team Falcons 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenYatoro
GyrocopterSkiter
Queen of PainLarl
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
TinkerMiposhka
MarsATF
Sand KingCollapse
JakiroSneyking
Ringmasterrue
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 68%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2