?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Falconsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusk
rue · 27 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 25 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 22 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
rue · 21 game
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 20 games
70%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 17 games
47%

Team Falcons

Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 38 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
68%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
72%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 30 games
77%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 29 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 25 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
632 picks · 979 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 438 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 632 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 1021 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 478 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 263 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 513 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
414 picks · 566 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 9
Model total59% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:31
Team Spirit 45%Team Falcons 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 41:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
51% · 190 games53% · 220 games
Shadow FiendSkiter
Shadow Fiend
Slardar
SlardarMirele
48% · 193 games52% · 93 games
ViperATF
Viper
Mars
MarsCollapse
49% · 272 games62% · 353 games
Ember SpiritMalr1ne
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
41% · 198 games49% · 204 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixPanto
48% · 155 games46% · 138 games
ClockwerkSneyking
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed35:20
Team Spirit 44%Team Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMirele
49% · 221 game50% · 256 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Clinkz
ClinkzYatoro
55% · 111 games52% · 241 game
Shadow FiendSkiter
Shadow Fiend
Mars
MarsCollapse
44% · 351 game51% · 411 games
Ember SpiritMalr1ne
Ember Spirit
Chen
ChenPanto
58% · 222 games47% · 156 games
Bounty HunterCr1t-
Bounty Hunter
Tusk
Tuskrue
45% · 490 games48% · 331 game
RingmasterSneyking
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2