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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 34 games
68%
Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 32 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 26 games
73%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Miposhka · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
81%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 18 games
78%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 17 games
94%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
rue · 16 games
63%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 36 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
68%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Boxi · 22 games
41%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Boxi · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
524 picks · 559 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
388 picks · 230 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
365 picks · 420 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
333 picks · 868 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 481 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
320 picks · 897 bans
60%
Tiny
Tiny
319 picks · 303 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
293 picks · 637 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total51% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:27
Team Spirit 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
50% · 209 games51% · 318 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
52% · 238 games54% · 198 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Mars
MarsCollapse
48% · 129 games38% · 73 games
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Brewmaster
Pugna
PugnaMiposhka
57% · 169 games48% · 305 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanrue
56% · 260 games44% · 111 games
DisruptoriNSaNiA
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed14:30
Team Spirit 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
48% · 158 games49% · 340 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
52% · 186 games51% · 203 games
MarcimiCKe
Marci
Mars
MarsCollapse
48% · 164 games56% · 92 games
LycanSabeRLight-
Lycan
Muerta
Muertarue
50% · 232 games46% · 102 games
SnapfireBoxi
Snapfire
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMiposhka
52% · 201 game49% · 204 games
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct39:16
Team Spirit 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomYatoro
54% · 275 games45% · 108 games
AbaddonmiCKe
Abaddon
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMirele
53% · 211 games48% · 205 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
51% · 96 games50% · 134 games
Sand KingSabeRLight-
Sand King
Disruptor
DisruptorMiposhka
51% · 83 games39% · 145 games
WarlockiNSaNiA
Warlock
Bane
Banerue
54% · 97 games56% · 170 games
ClockwerkBoxi
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 51%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3