Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Uniqueloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 7 games
Bloodseekersignature
Collapse · 6 games
Morphlingsignature
Yatoro · 6 games
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 4 games
Disruptor
Miposhka · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
so bad · 4 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
427 picks · 937 bans
Void Spirit
406 picks · 582 bans
Death Prophet
360 picks · 655 bans
Mars
335 picks · 580 bans
Earth Spirit
307 picks · 273 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 174 bans
Phoenix
255 picks · 364 bans
Grimstroke
247 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:23
Team Spirit 60%Team Unique 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 50:10.
Game 2prediction correct22:6
Team Spirit 60%Team Unique 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 25:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 60%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2