Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Uniqueloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 28 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 18 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 17 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 16 games
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 16 games
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
425 picks · 171 bans
Ancient Apparition
312 picks · 472 bans
Nyx Assassin
305 picks · 619 bans
Puck
301 picks · 695 bans
Mars
298 picks · 521 bans
Hoodwink
276 picks · 114 bans
Lina
260 picks · 337 bans
Dragon Knight
256 picks · 317 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 44%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total79% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:21
Team Spirit 79%Team Unique 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 48:44.
Game 2prediction correct31:24
Team Spirit 79%Team Unique 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 79%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2