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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 22 games
82%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 19 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 16 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 15 games
87%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Miposhka · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
82%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
55%

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 24 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 21 game
62%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Panda · 19 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 14 games
79%
Bane
Banesignature
Panda · 13 games
77%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 13 games
69%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sacred · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 389 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
443 picks · 678 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
301 picks · 462 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
286 picks · 691 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
276 picks · 398 bans
46%
Undying
Undying
270 picks · 477 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
248 picks · 855 bans
51%
Chen
Chen
248 picks · 512 bans
63%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:44
Team Spirit 54%Thunder Awaken 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 33:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYatoro
45% · 61 game52% · 138 games
Faceless VoidPakazs
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
49% · 315 games57% · 135 games
EnigmaSacred
Enigma
Night Stalker
Night StalkerCollapse
43% · 121 game45% · 159 games
Storm SpiritDarkMago
Storm Spirit
Undying
UndyingMiposhka
51% · 163 games53% · 129 games
Nyx AssassinMatthew
Nyx Assassin
Marci
MarciMira
47% · 150 games56% · 249 games
BanePanda
Bane
Game 2prediction correct29:27
Team Spirit 55%Thunder Awaken 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
53% · 208 games49% · 218 games
KunkkaPakazs
Kunkka
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
46% · 35 games52% · 157 games
BatriderDarkMago
Batrider
Enigma
EnigmaCollapse
49% · 123 games48% · 98 games
TidehunterSacred
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinyMira
54% · 358 games48% · 277 games
MarciMatthew
Marci
Jakiro
JakiroMiposhka
47% · 76 games52% · 50 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2