OGA Dota PIT EU/CIS Season 5 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:3series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Tundra Esportswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Banesignature
Miposhka · 19 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 18 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 17 games
Hoodwinksignature
Miposhka · 16 games
Magnussignature
Collapse · 16 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 15 games
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Miranasignature
Mira · 14 games
Tundra Esports
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 14 games
Batridersignature
Nine · 13 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 13 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 13 games
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 13 games
Lunasignature
Skiter · 12 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
371 picks · 542 bans
Snapfire
330 picks · 201 bans
Bane
329 picks · 258 bans
Weaver
314 picks · 704 bans
Monkey King
251 picks · 757 bans
Tidehunter
248 picks · 386 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 153 bans
Ember Spirit
231 picks · 331 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total73% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:9
Team Spirit 65%Tundra Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYatoro
LinaNine
RazorTORONTOTOKYO
Lycan33
Night StalkerCollapse
BloodseekerSkiter
Treant ProtectorMira
IoSneyking
BaneMiposhka
Winter WyvernFata
Game 2prediction missed18:35
Team Spirit 61%Tundra Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightTORONTOTOKYO
Queen of PainNine
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Doom33
Sand KingCollapse
RazorSkiter
GrimstrokeMira
Nyx AssassinSneyking
BaneMiposhka
AbaddonFata
Game 3prediction missed8:24
Team Spirit 62%Tundra Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenYatoro
Wraith KingSkiter
Outworld DestroyerCollapse
RazorNine
Ember SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Broodmother33
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Vengeful SpiritSneyking
Nyx AssassinMira
BaneFata
Game 4prediction missed15:32
Team Spirit 64%Tundra Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Queen of PainNine
RazorYatoro
LunaSkiter
TidehunterCollapse
Beastmaster33
Treant ProtectorMira
Death ProphetSneyking
BaneMiposhka
Nyx AssassinFata
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 73%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4