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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 24 games
54%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 20 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 18 games
72%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Mira · 18 games
83%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Collapse · 16 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 16 games
63%

Virtus.pro

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
sayuw · 12 games
58%
Techies
Techies
Fng · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 10 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
sayuw · 9 games
44%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 8 games
88%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 7 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kiritych · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
226 picks · 116 bans
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
214 picks · 270 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
205 picks · 422 bans
54%
Sven
Sven
187 picks · 261 bans
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
173 picks · 100 bans
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
165 picks · 166 bans
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
164 picks · 354 bans
49%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
158 picks · 295 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total91% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:32
Team Spirit 76%Virtus.pro 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
49% · 42 games54% · 21 game
SpectreKiritych
Spectre
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCollapse
46% · 68 games52% · 11 games
BristlebackNoticed
Bristleback
Viper
ViperLarl
45% · 23 games59% · 81 game
LinaSquad1x
Lina
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
46% · 58 games49% · 56 games
Pugnasayuw
Pugna
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
51% · 8 games48% · 30 games
GrimstrokeFng
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct47:35
Team Spirit 79%Virtus.pro 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 59:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaYatoro
59% · 38 games49% · 120 games
Templar AssassinSquad1x
Templar Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCollapse
46% · 61 game51% · 60 games
Chaos KnightKiritych
Chaos Knight
Puck
PuckLarl
58% · 121 game47% · 63 games
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Centaur Warrunner
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMira
55% · 55 games43% · 81 game
Invokersayuw
Invoker
Tusk
TuskMiposhka
50% · 182 games46% · 133 games
PhoenixFng
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct30:20
Team Spirit 78%Virtus.pro 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
53% · 50 games43% · 28 games
SpectreKiritych
Spectre
Invoker
InvokerLarl
36% · 30 games51% · 96 games
Keeper of the LightSquad1x
Keeper of the Light
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
51% · 38 games51% · 20 games
Wraith KingNoticed
Wraith King
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
50% · 57 games49% · 23 games
Muertasayuw
Muerta
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMiposhka
51% · 77 games54% · 85 games
GrimstrokeFng
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 91%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3