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BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
X3loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 21 game
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
57%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 14 games
79%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 12 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Mira · 12 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 11 games
91%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Miposhka · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
80%

X3

Tiny
Tiny
velheor · 24 games
58%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 21 game
52%
Marci
Marcioften banned
velheor · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 16 games
56%
Zeus
Zeussignature
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
dark · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
342 picks · 306 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
279 picks · 256 bans
58%
Marci
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
252 picks · 452 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
236 picks · 509 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
221 picks · 553 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 320 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
204 picks · 116 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)21% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:19
Team Spirit 70%X3 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
51% · 154 games53% · 235 games
BeastmasterShergarat
Beastmaster
Zeus
ZeusLarl
46% · 116 games57% · 139 games
Morphlingnesfeer
Morphling
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
46% · 49 games49% · 264 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyMira
52% · 547 games53% · 196 games
Hoodwinkalone
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
46% · 241 game48% · 273 games
Clockwerkdark
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct50:17
Team Spirit 71%X3 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingYatoro
51% · 96 games63% · 62 games
LycanShergarat
Lycan
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
33% · 29 games56% · 139 games
Doomnesfeer
Doom
Snapfire
SnapfireLarl
44% · 214 games51% · 156 games
TuskNattyNarwhal
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMira
52% · 166 games50% · 72 games
Silencerdark
Silencer
Rubick
RubickMiposhka
44% · 111 games49% · 187 games
Hoodwinkalone
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 86%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2