?
arrow_backBack to match
Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 60 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 28 games
68%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 28 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 28 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 28 games
61%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 26 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
63%

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 23 games
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 19 games
53%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 18 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 14 games
79%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 14 games
71%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 12 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Paparazi · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
644 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
519 picks · 340 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
450 picks · 967 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
422 picks · 929 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 859 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 348 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
386 picks · 1004 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
382 picks · 447 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:4
Team Spirit 58%Xtreme Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 20:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
45% · 72 games48% · 107 games
LycanGhost
Lycan
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
47% · 155 games49% · 112 games
Dragon KnightPaparazi
Dragon Knight
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCollapse
57% · 80 games53% · 110 games
UnderlordJT-
Underlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMiposhka
50% · 105 games44% · 276 games
SnapfireXinQ
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMira
53% · 243 games56% · 50 games
Elder TitanDy
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct34:12
Team Spirit 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
57% · 119 games54% · 139 games
BloodseekerGhost
Bloodseeker
Timbersaw
TimbersawCollapse
45% · 210 games47% · 140 games
PuckPaparazi
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
47% · 388 games47% · 324 games
DoomJT-
Doom
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
55% · 28 games53% · 172 games
EnigmaXinQ
Enigma
Tusk
TuskMira
50% · 286 games49% · 256 games
SilencerDy
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 68%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2