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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 17 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 14 games
86%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 13 games
85%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 13 games
85%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 11 games
73%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Miposhka · 11 games
91%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 10 games
90%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 9 games
78%

Xtreme Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 12 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 8 games
100%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 7 games
100%
Batrider
Batridersignature
XinQ · 6 games
83%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 6 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XinQ · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Xxs · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
376 picks · 332 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
325 picks · 317 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 468 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
275 picks · 382 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
274 picks · 401 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
269 picks · 188 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
264 picks · 145 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
258 picks · 189 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:31
Team Spirit 57%Xtreme Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
51% · 73 games50% · 145 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Puck
PuckLarl
42% · 127 games57% · 46 games
SlardarXxs
Slardar
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
47% · 128 games51% · 33 games
Outworld DestroyerXm
Outworld Destroyer
Techies
TechiesMira
52% · 159 games43% · 165 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
56% · 27 games56% · 125 games
Monkey KingXinQ
Monkey King
Game 2prediction correct30:7
Team Spirit 55%Xtreme Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
46% · 203 games47% · 58 games
Phantom LancerAme
Phantom Lancer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
53% · 297 games52% · 289 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCollapse
48% · 142 games46% · 152 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
42% · 147 games59% · 164 games
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
58% · 43 games50% · 169 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed15:32
Team Spirit 56%Xtreme Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
58% · 92 games37% · 47 games
LifestealerAme
Lifestealer
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCollapse
54% · 94 games39% · 34 games
LinaXm
Lina
Sniper
SniperLarl
72% · 10 games47% · 107 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMiposhka
47% · 93 games47% · 73 games
GrimstrokeXinQ
Grimstroke
Mirana
MiranaMira
62% · 68 games49% · 96 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3