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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 37 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 35 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 27 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 24 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Yatoro · 20 games
55%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
rue · 19 games
63%

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 30 games
70%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 30 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 25 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 23 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Ame · 23 games
61%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Poloson · 22 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 22 games
55%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
483 picks · 525 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
464 picks · 507 bans
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
410 picks · 213 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
374 picks · 367 bans
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
369 picks · 253 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
367 picks · 786 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 530 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 507 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total56% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:14
Team Spirit 54%Xtreme Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
54% · 137 games55% · 288 games
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Axe
AxeCollapse
46% · 39 games50% · 160 games
TimbersawXm
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
44% · 229 games56% · 190 games
Dark SeerXxs
Dark Seer
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMiposhka
46% · 180 games55% · 144 games
EarthshakerXinQ
Earthshaker
Muerta
Muertarue
45% · 236 games44% · 39 games
DazzlePoloson
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed23:37
Team Spirit 55%Xtreme Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 45:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainCollapse
46% · 109 games57% · 3 games
JuggernautAme
Juggernaut
Lifestealer
LifestealerYatoro
50% · 104 games50% · 125 games
Shadow FiendXm
Shadow Fiend
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
48% · 246 games48% · 180 games
KunkkaXxs
Kunkka
Warlock
WarlockMiposhka
49% · 148 games48% · 475 games
TinyXinQ
Tiny
Tusk
Tuskrue
49% · 295 games62% · 119 games
MiranaPoloson
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2