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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 32 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 32 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 31 game
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 25 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 25 games
64%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 23 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 21 game
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 19 games
63%

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 29 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 28 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
41%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 22 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 22 games
73%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 22 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 21 game
52%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 21 game
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
679 picks · 856 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
580 picks · 597 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 430 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
484 picks · 337 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
426 picks · 1125 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 698 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
403 picks · 1030 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 625 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 49%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total69% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:19
Team Spirit 62%Xtreme Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYatoro
44% · 73 games53% · 255 games
GyrocopterAme
Gyrocopter
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
49% · 236 games53% · 372 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Slardar
SlardarLarl
52% · 385 games51% · 323 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
51% · 764 games52% · 431 game
Tuskfy
Tusk
Lion
Lionrue
45% · 148 games49% · 225 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed16:34
Team Spirit 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 41:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperLarl
48% · 22 games44% · 15 games
SpectreAme
Spectre
Lifestealer
LifestealerYatoro
46% · 42 games51% · 94 games
BrewmasterXxs
Brewmaster
Mars
MarsCollapse
50% · 203 games53% · 143 games
LeshracNothingToSay
Leshrac
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanto
52% · 65 games57% · 39 games
Spirit Breakerfy
Spirit Breaker
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
46% · 133 games48% · 174 games
DazzlexNova
Dazzle
Game 3prediction missed28:46
Team Spirit 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:13:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
54% · 107 games51% · 221 game
BeastmasterAme
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierCollapse
47% · 320 games51% · 219 games
SlardarXxs
Slardar
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
47% · 184 games52% · 149 games
Sand KingNothingToSay
Sand King
Phoenix
PhoenixPanto
53% · 194 games50% · 240 games
Hoodwinkfy
Hoodwink
Lion
Lionrue
50% · 68 games42% · 44 games
VenomancerxNova
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 69%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3