?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
97%3%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 12 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 10 games
90%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 9 games
100%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Mira · 8 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 7 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 7 games
86%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 7 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yatoro · 7 games
100%

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 11 games
64%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
27%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 11 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 11 games
45%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rue · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 8 games
13%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 8 games
13%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
303 picks · 441 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
276 picks · 412 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
261 picks · 445 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
232 picks · 213 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
230 picks · 214 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
228 picks · 651 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
227 picks · 127 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
223 picks · 312 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 48%
Hero pool strength72% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total97% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
Team Spirit 87%Yellow Submarine 13%
The model gave 87% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
60% · 49 games52% · 218 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Puck
PuckLarl
52% · 140 games54% · 51 game
WeaverSatanic
Weaver
Mars
MarsCollapse
50% · 107 games44% · 135 games
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
47% · 189 games46% · 176 games
Techiesrue
Techies
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMiposhka
50% · 95 games
Game 2prediction missed26:50
Team Spirit 86%Yellow Submarine 14%
The model gave 86% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 46:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerYatoro
48% · 59 games51% · 63 games
SlarkSatanic
Slark
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
48% · 131 game53% · 88 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Pudge
PudgeCollapse
48% · 87 games51% · 53 games
Marsemptiness
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMira
55% · 79 games47% · 166 games
Rubickrue
Rubick
Bane
BaneMiposhka
53% · 14 games
Game 3prediction correct39:17
Team Spirit 87%Yellow Submarine 13%
The model gave 87% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
52% · 145 games49% · 97 games
LunaSatanic
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
49% · 379 games54% · 337 games
Pangoliererase
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCollapse
50% · 165 games51% · 222 games
Beastmasteremptiness
Beastmaster
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
49% · 50 games46% · 242 games
Techiesrue
Techies
Lion
LionMira
51% · 159 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 97%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3