Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
team surplusloss 0:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
CYBER UNIONwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
team surplus
No games played over 6 months.
CYBER UNION
Tiny
Miyaoo · 12 games
Silencer
Arti_Shock · 11 games
Tusk
OneJey · 10 games
Lich
Arti_Shock · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
Pudgeoften banned
dizzying · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
OneJey · 5 games
Clockwerk
OneJey · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 245 bans
Marci
323 picks · 559 bans
Undying
285 picks · 474 bans
Tusk
272 picks · 182 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 423 bans
Primal Beast
239 picks · 502 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 288 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 102 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% team surplus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% CYBER UNION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:39
team surplus 47%CYBER UNION 53%
The model gave 53% on CYBER UNION — the game was taken by CYBER UNION in 56:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBER UNION · 53%
Series resultCYBER UNION 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1